Note: this is part one in a series where I share basic business knowledge for non-business majors. Recommended book: Business Essentials for Strategic Communicators by Ragas and Cup.

No matter your role in a business organization, you will be affected by the economy at some point.

The economy is booming, perhaps your organization is too. Or maybe it isn’t, because your particular economic sector is not. The economy is crashing, maybe your organization is losing business. Or maybe it isn’t, because your economic sector or business plan is set up to benefit from a down economy.

I used to work for a mid-sized public company. I wasn’t involved in the business; I was the manager of technical support. When I started in 2013, things seemed to be booming, which I felt was quite a find as the economy was just starting to recover from the late 2000’s recession. I heard stories about the bonuses, the travel perks. I got a taste of these benefits in my first year, taking home more money than I’ve ever made in my entire career.

However, as the economy started to recover, the business began to struggle. As it turns out, the business model benefited from a recession, as the company was in the liquidation business. With a struggling economy, other businesses had more assets to liquidate. While the core business remained as the economy strengthened, the extras that sustained the boom times dried up. People got laid off. Bonuses decreased or were eliminated.

I helped manage two rounds of layoffs, collecting laptops and phones and deactivating accounts. I saw emotions ranging from disappointment, sadness and anger. I got a call from my VP near the end of the second round telling me that my own boss had been laid off, presumably because of his higher salary. I was thrust into his position. I lasted three months before I became burned out and quit without another job lined up.

Looking back, I wish I had known more about key economic indicators that might have helped me make a better decision as to whether or not to take that job to begin with. Or perhaps I could have set myself up for a transfer or promotion to a more stable side of the company, had I known what was coming.

In any case, here’s a quick explanation of what I wish I had known before taking a job at a public corporation.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

This is the most frequently used macroeconomic measure of a country’s economic health and standard of living. It represents the market value of all goods and services produced within the country. When GDP is growing, we call it expanding. When it is declining, we call it contracting. When it declines two quarters in a row, we call it a recession.

As of 2019, the United States was still the largest economy in the world, by far: $21,427,700,000,000 (that’s $21.4 trillion, if you were wondering). China comes in at number two with $14.3 trillion. At number three, Japan doesn’t even come close at $5.1 trillion.

Indicators to watch: the rise and fall in GDP. Developing countries tend to rise a lot faster than the United States, Japan and most European countries, because they have a lower base from which to rise. China, despite its seemingly dominating #2 position still has a long way to grow, given that their population is four times higher than the United States, 11 times higher than Japan and 16 times higher than Germany.

For perspective, the United States’ GDP grew at rates between 1.6% and 3.1% from 2010 to 2019. Since 1980, the highest one year rate was 1984, at 7.2%, as the economy came roaring out of a recession. China, on the other hand, regularly sees yearly growth rates at 6.8% or higher.

In any case, a fall in GDP and a recession will most likely have a negative impact on an organization, unless the business model is set up to benefit from a recession.

Resource: The World Bank Data Catalog

Unemployment

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics updates its Jobs Report every month, for the preceding month. The report indicates the number of jobs gained or lost, and the rate of workers who are looking for work and currently unemployed. The data can be broken down by labor sectors, such as professional services, leisure and hospitality, and others.

An increasing unemployment rate indicates a poor economic situation. It also turns the labor market into an employer’s market, as there are more potential applicants from which to recruit. This can also drive down wages and benefits. On the other hand, a decreasing unemployment rate indicates an economic recovery or boom, and turns the labor market into a worker’s market, as there are fewer applicants from which to recruit. This can drive up wages and benefits.

Resource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Inflation

This is the rate at which prices rise for products and services. Economists say that a rate of no more than 2% is ideal. After this point, the value of money and its purchasing power significantly decrease.

The Consumer Price Index measures inflation as the average prices paid by urban consumers for a “basket” of goods and services. The CPI breaks these down by categories: all items, food, energy and all other items less food and energy.

The opposite of inflation is deflation; this is when prices are falling, due to consumers delaying purchases due to feeling poorer. In this case, many asset values also decrease, such as property and equities.

The CPI displays two key figures: the 12-month percentage change, and the current rate of inflation. Note that in November 2020, food had a relatively high inflation rate compared to November 2019, while energy had a massive deflation rate. Of course, these, along with the modest inflation rate of all other items offset, and the current inflation rate as of November 2020 was +0.2%.

Of course, 2020 saw energy prices with a drastic decline due to an overall decline in transportation. Lockdowns, quarantines, work from home and other restrictions reduced car, train and air travel, which in turn led to a decline in demand for fuel. Food, meanwhile, saw production and logistics costs increase along with retail demand, leading to higher food costs.

From a business standpoint, inflation can lead to higher labor and production costs. At the same time, it makes existing debt cheaper to pay off.

Resource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index

Interest Rates and the Federal Reserve

Speaking of debt, the interest rate is what it costs to borrow money. The rate affects the prices and availability of credit. Low interest rates mean cheap money, and typically, economic growth. However, this can lead to inflation. High interest rates mean borrowing money is more expensive, which leads to less lending demand and reduced purchasing and capital investments. This is used as a tool to fight high inflation.

The Federal Funds Rate is set by the United States Federal Reserve. This is the rate at which banks lend to each other, so it sets the baseline of the banks’ interest rates. The chair of the Federal Reserve heads the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which meets eight times per year to set the rate. The media and the market closely follows the results of these meetings, especially during times of economic turbulence.

As the above chart shows, the Federal Funds Rate rose significantly in the recessionary periods of the 1970’s and early 1980’s, peaking in the latter period when inflation was at historic highs. Then, as the economy improved, the rate gradually went back down.

The recessionary periods of the early and late 2000’s, and today have been different. Inflation has not been an issue, so the rate went down to historic lows in an attempt to stimulate economic growth through spending and capital investments, fed by cheap loans. However, a shaky and uncertain economy can also prevent firms from taking on new debt and risks, despite the value of the debt, so low interest rates are not necessarily a sure-fix for economic issues.

Resource: Federal Reserve, Effective Federal Funds Rate

Consumer Confidence

This is the measure of public opinion on the economy as told through surveys of a representative sample of the American public. Increasing consumer confidence indicates a near-future increase in consumer spending, as confident consumers tend to spend more and save less. Decreasing consumer confidence indicates cautious or negative consumers, who tend to save more and spend less. These indicators feed into business demand, and help firms plan for future production, especially if their economic sector is affected by consumer confidence.

Research indicates that consumer confidence responds to both real-world economic conditions, such as unemployment and to media reporting.

The above is a screen shot of the consumer confidence index at the end of 2020. It shows consumer confidence down, but employment confidence slightly rising. Meanwhile, online job listings slightly decreased. CEOs, meanwhile, seemed to be overly confident about the near future.

Resource: The Conference Board

Currency Exchange Rates

This is the rate at which one currency is exchanged for another. Typically, a weaker dollar means it is more expensive for Americans to exchange and spend other currencies. It also makes imported products more expensive, as the dollar is unable to purchase as much from other countries. On the other hand, it makes domestic goods more valuable and promotes production and exports from American companies.

At the time of this writing, the dollar is considered stronger, meaning, all things equal, imported products may be cheaper, and exports are less valuable. However for some imports, we must factor in tariffs, which are an attempt to equalize perceived trade indifferences.

One way to view the relative value of a dollar to other currencies is through the Big Mac Index, developed by the Economist. This notion assumes that a Big Mac should cost the same in every country, as it is made from the same ingredients everywhere. The index shows the relative value of a Big Mac in each country’s currency compared to another, and factoring in the actual exchange rate, figures whether the current rate is under (strong) or overvalued (weak) (or equal or true). As the above indicates, the British Pound is undervalued compared to the US Dollar, meaning the Dollar is strong against the Pound.

Resources: CNN World Currencies Exchange; The Economist’s Big Mac Index.